Bitcoin  news  crypto The Spanish Prisoner: On the Future of Libra and Bitcoin
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Bitcoin news crypto The Spanish Prisoner: On the Future of Libra and Bitcoin

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It’s an mesmerizing setup, Mr. Ross. It is the oldest self assurance sport on the books. The Spanish Prisoner. Fellow says him and his sister, affluent refugees, left a fortune within the dwelling nation. He got out, lady and the money caught in Spain. Here is her most shining portrait. And he wants money to bring together her and the fortune out. Man who offers the money gets the fortune and the girl. Oldest con within the sphere.

– David Mamet “The Spanish Prisoner” (1997)

Designate Zuckerberg is no longer The Spanish Prisoner. He’s the guy running the con.


Seven or eight years ago, I was on a commuter flight, sitting in an aisle seat. Two rows earlier than me, across the aisle on my dependable, a man used to be arguing along with his wife/girlfriend. It wasn’t a ferocious argument, however any set of personal disagreement is noticeable in these circumstances, and it had been simmering since I realized them boarding the plane.

There were two assorted things I realized when they sat down. The wife/girlfriend had the husband/boyfriend’s establish – Randy – tattooed on the lend a hand of her neck, and Randy had the letters T – R – U – S – T tattooed on the fingers of his left hand. I undergo in recommendations smiling to myself when I noticed this. Clearly these two were from a truly assorted background than me, however I truly appreciated the public point out of dedication they’d made by getting these tattoos. I undergo in recommendations contemplating to myself that I wager their relationship used to be a solid one, although the disagreement gave the impact to simmer at some level of the flight.

The plane landed and all of us stood up. And then I noticed the letters tattooed on Randy’s dependable hand.

N – O – O – N – E

All of a unexpected, I was shining definite this guy’s establish wasn’t Randy. All of a unexpected, I was shining definite this relationship wasn’t at risk of closing.

I truly feel love I even own TRUST NO ONE tattooed on my arms nowadays, and in case you’ve been working in finance for more than 10 years, I wager you are going to also very properly be feeling precisely the identical manner.

Broken-the overall model down to work for Endure? I know you are going to also very properly be feeling this form.

Broken-the overall model down to work for Lehman? I know you are going to also very properly be feeling this form.

Broken-the overall model down to work for Citi? I know you are going to also very properly be feeling this form.

Broken-the overall model down to work for Merrill? I know you are going to also very properly be feeling this form.

Broken-the overall model down to work for Deutsche Financial institution? I know you are going to also very properly be feeling this form.

Yeah, we’ve all got these tattoos nowadays. Now we own them as a reminder, as a figurative reminder (or literal within the case of “Randy”), that we truly truly truly shouldn’t belief someone AGAIN.

Because we need a reminder. Because we need to belief again.

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Jimmy Dell: I judge you’ll catch that if what you’ve completed for them is as treasured as you articulate it is, within the occasion that they are indebted to you morally however no longer legally, my expertise is they’re going to give you nothing, and they’re going to initiate to act cruelly in opposition to you.

Joe Ross: Why?

Jimmy Dell: To suppress their guilt.

– David Mamet “The Spanish Prisoner” (1997)

Jimmy Dell is the con man within the 1997 David Mamet movie, performed by Steve Martin in his finest dramatic role. In traces love above and below, Jimmy builds a personal belief with the trace by calling his consideration to the shortcoming of belief in alternate relationships. Effective consultants enact this plenty, talking of self assurance games.

Jimmy Dell: Frequently enact alternate as if the person you’re doing alternate with is making an are trying to screw you, because he presumably is. And if he’s no longer, you are going to even be pleasantly stunned.

That’s the object about the Spanish Prisoner con. It doesn’t work on saints. It doesn’t work on these that forgive and omit, who turn the assorted cheek and own an never-ending reservoir of religion of their fellow folks. It also doesn’t work on sociopaths. It doesn’t work on these that if truth be told belief no person, who can deceive themselves and others without final consequence or remorse.

The Spanish Prisoner con works fully on trim and done these that judge they own TRUST NO ONE figuratively tattooed on their arms, who judge they’re too suave to be fooled again, however discontinue up fully being too suave by half of.

The Spanish Prisoner con works fully on coyotes.

Who is a coyote? A coyote is a suave puzzle-solver who truly has the fully of intentions. Who truly desires to realize success for the dependable reasons. Who truly desires to enact one thing of meaning within the sphere. Who is trim and aware and no-one’s fool. Who has been beaten up professionally a shrimp and has a healthy skepticism about the alternate and political world.

And who’s factual a shrimp bit bit on the assassinate. 

The defining attribute of the Spanish Prisoner con is that the trace believes he is doing properly while doing appropriate form. The trace believes that he is doing the dependable thing, that he’s the supreme form guy on this epic. And if the liberated Prisoner is financially grateful, or if the Prisoner’s sister is grateful in her own manner if what I point out and I judge you enact … properly, that appears to be like fully dazzling, dependable?

Now the Spanish Prisoner doesn’t prefer to be an exact person that wants rescuing. That’s a con for the rubes. The Spanish Prisoner is what Alfred Hitchcock known as a MacGuffin – one thing else that serves as an Object of Desire for the trace, one thing else that motivates the trace and furthers the yarn arc of the con.

Essentially, the fully MacGuffins are no longer generally straightforward signifiers of wealth love an affluent Spanish dude. No, essentially the most compelling Spanish Prisoners are Substantial Solutions love social justice or making The United States sizable again or resisting the Man. That’s what gets a coyote’s juices going. Especially if there’s also a pot of gold associated with being on the dependable aspect of that Substantial Conception.

Essentially the most successful con operators are the Nudging Notify and the Nudging Oligarchy. Why? Correctly, partially since you’ve gotta own some heft to credibly commit to rescuing a Substantial Conception from the clutches of whatever Substantial Baddie has it now. But largely because running the con for money is factual contemplating waaaay too minute.

The Nudging Notify and the Nudging Oligarchy don’t need you money. They already own it!

The con here is to realize your belief – again – in recount that you willingly give up your autonomy of recommendations. So that you settle for without thought or reflection the naturalness of your recent relationship to the Notify and the Oligarchy.

You’d never tumble for this con if it were half of a easy commercial plot love a job or a receive say. Please! You’re powerful too savvy for that. That you may well own got TRUST NO ONE tattooed on your arms, undergo in recommendations?

But for the likelihood to abet rescue a Substantial Conception …

But for the likelihood to assassinate a pair of dollars or expertise your self a shrimp more as half of doing the dependable thing …

There’s no longer a coyote within the sphere that can resist that bait. And that’s why even as you initiate attempting for the Spanish Prisoner con, you are going to eye it all over.

Libra, the cryptocoin promoted by Facebook, is a Spanish Prisoner con.

What’s the Substantial Conception? Why it’s banking the unbanked. It’s facilitating inferior-border remittances. It’s bringing the advantages of crypto to the world heaps. ALL OF THIS IS TRUE. To this level as it goes.

And if it facilitates e-commerce along the model? if it’s conceivable to assassinate a pair of dollars or expertise some increased conveniences as half of Facebook and its partners executing on this Substantial Conception? Correctly, what’s injurious with that?

What’s injurious is that here is how Bitcoin dies.

Here is how a censorship-embracing coin replaces a censorship-resistant coin. Here is how the Notify and the Oligarchy co-decide crypto. No longer with the heel of a jackboot. But with the glamour of comfort and yarn.

And in about a years this can all seem so pure to you.

The expend of executive-accepted electronic money will be the water by which you and your kids swim. You may possibly well no longer be in a spot to imagine a world the place a censorship-embracing coin is no longer all over.

Yay, capitalism!

Libra used to be designed to co-decide Bitcoin.

Libra used to be designed to permit executive oversight over your financial transactions.

Libra used to be designed to present a transparent regulatory window and help watch over mechanism over you money.

Libra used to be designed for Caesar.

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From the Libra consortium:

Here is why we imagine in and are dedicated to a collaborative path of with regulators, central banks, and lawmakers to make certain that that Libra helps with the set of considerations that the existing financial machine has been combating, notably round money laundering, terrorism financing, and more. On the core, we imagine that a community that helps pass more money transactions – the place a range of illicit actions happen – to a digital community that aspects regulated on and off ramps with right know-your-customer (KYC) practices, mixed with the flexibility for regulation enforcement and regulators to conduct their very own diagnosis of on-chain activity, will seemingly be a colossal opportunity to enlarge the efficacy of financial crimes monitoring and enforcement.

“Boo, terrorists!”

A year from now, the yarn epic arc relating to “felony activity” by money transaction networks AND censorship-resistant transaction networks love Bitcoin will seemingly be louder, no longer softer. In three years, this is in a position to be deafening.

Libra and its e-commerce comfort, in conjunction with its Substantial Conception skin of helping The Poors … that’s the carrot.

The “Boo, terrorists! yarn … that’s the stick.

Will Bitcoin itself be outlawed? Presumably. But I truly doubt it. It’s too important as a societal steam valve, now that we’ve got Libra and (quickly) assorted Oligarchy-subsidized and Notify-supported cryptos in circulation.

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What does Bitcoin become in a world the place narrate-accepted e-money is in extensive circulation?

It becomes an act of effete riot, love a non-threatening tattoo on your upper arm that you are going to be in a spot to duvet up with a shirt in case you love.

Bitcoin becomes a signifier of Resistance in role of a tool of Resistance.

Proudly owning Bitcoin will assassinate you a Depressed Boy! or a Depressed Girl! … a stable malcontent that the Nudging Notify and Nudging Oligarchy are glad to defend.

What’s my message to the dependable-believers who continue to glimpse Bitcoin as a tool for Resistance?

For the next fifty years, you bring together to play the role of the grumpy aged man yelling at clouds.

You know, the role that gold dependable-believers got to play for the previous fifty years.

It’s a glum manner to live.

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It’s a glum manner to live for two reasons.

First, and most crucially, this role that the Nudging Notify is laying out for you is steeped in harmful vitality. You may possibly maybe catch your self rooting for catastrophe. You may possibly maybe catch your self hoping for decline and collapse. You may possibly maybe catch your self conflating justice with loss and comeuppance. You may possibly maybe expend on unhappiness and schadenfreude as your resting psychic narrate. Trust me when I articulate that I do know of which I declare. Negative vitality is deadly. That is no longer a figurative assertion. This can literally abolish you.

2nd, you’ll be infested by raccoons, which is in a spot to be tolerated if no longer encouraged by regulators, in only the identical manner they are tolerated if no longer encouraged by regulators in gold-world. Obvious, you’ll own the occasional present trial of egregiously aggressive safety frauds and Crypto-Funded Criminals ™, however the escape of the mill hucksters and con males will stroll with impunity.

Because here’s what ALWAYS occurs.

The money quote from Too Clever By Half:

And that brings me to what’s individually essentially the most disturbing ingredient of all this. The inevitable consequence of financial innovation gone awry, which it ALWAYS does, is that it ALWAYS finally ends up empowering the Notify. And never factual empowering the Notify, however empowering the Notify in a particular manner, the place it becomes more difficult and more difficult to be a non-domesticated, suave coyote, even because the non-suave, felony raccoons flourish.

That’s no longer an accident. The Notify doesn’t truly care about the raccoons, precisely because they’re NOT suave. The Notify — particularly the Nudging Notify — cares very powerful about co-opting an Conception That Changes Issues, whether it adjustments things in a modest manner or hugely. It cares very powerful about coyote inhabitants help watch over.

It’s all about coyote inhabitants help watch over. It constantly is.

Is there a means out of this for Bitcoin? No. Co-risk by the Notify and Oligarchy used to be the Doom of Bitcoin from the starting.

I point out … I articulate “Doom” love it’s going to be hurled into the fires of Mordor, however that’s no longer it in any appreciate. There will easy be dependable-believers and raccoons alike producing tradable narratives. You’ll easy be in a spot to assassinate money by trading Bitcoin on these narratives (and altcoins, too, I’d seek recordsdata from, despite the indisputable fact that I have not any thought how you generate a compelling altcoin yarn on the 2nd).

It’s no longer love Bitcoin goes to head away.

But Bitcoin goes to be permanently diminished in its social importance by the adoption of Libra and assorted Oligarchy-subsidized and Notify-embracing crypto currencies. Bitcoin will never again point out what it long-established to point out.

You know … factual love gold used to be permanently diminished in its social importance by the adoption of Oligarchy-subsidized and Notify-embracing fiat currencies. Fair love gold will never again point out what it long-established to point out.

I wrote this exhibit six years ago. It used to be the first Epsilon Theory exhibit to bring together frequent recognition. You’ll eye hints – more than hints, if truth be told – of your entire colossal ET themes over the previous couple of years, particularly The Three-Body Speak.

The core of this exhibit is a quote by Bob Prince, Bridgewater’s co-CIO and an exact prince of a man. I factual judge he’s injurious when he says this:

The relationships of asset performance to increase and inflation are decent – certainly, timeless and universal – and knowable, rooted within the periods and sources of variability of the assets’ money flows.

I judge Bob Prince is injurious in only the identical manner that JP “Jupiter” Morgan used to be injurious when he said this:

Gold is money. The total lot else is credit score.

When you happen to bring together nothing else from Epsilon Theory, bring together this:

There are no longer any timeless and universal relationships between asset performance and ANYTHING.

The fully determinant of designate for a non-money-flowing thing is Narrative. Essentially, the fully determinant of designate for a money-flowing thing is Narrative, too, however we can save that argument for an additional day. And what I am announcing about these non-money-flowing things is this:

The introduction of Libra adjustments the Bitcoin yarn in only the identical manner that the introduction of fiat currency modified the gold yarn. And by alternate I point out crush.

That makes me unhappy. That makes me enraged. I am satisfied that it is half and parcel of a Spanish Prisoner con sport. But I refuse to present into the harmful vitality of that realization AND I refuse to present up on the Substantial Solutions that I imagine in.

So what enact I enact?

I con the con man.

I do know what Designate and Sheryl and your entire assorted Davos-going Crew Elite sociopaths are about.

I eye what they are offering me and I TAKE it. Without hesitation. Without remorse. I expend it factual as they are making an are trying to expend from me … in plump sociopathic bloom.

And what enact I give them in return?

NOTHING.

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Develop I care about banking the unbanked and inferior-border remittances? Sure, I enact. Very powerful. So I will TAKE the protocols and the KYC procedures and every little thing else Libra provides, and I will USE all of that to extra the social justice targets that I take hold of. And they’re going to bring together NOTHING from me in return. I will help my autonomy of recommendations. I enact NOT omit what they are making an are trying to defend shut from me. I enact no longer ALLOW them to defend shut that from me.

I refuse to present them my belief.

And I will glance every opportunity to break their Microscopic Kingdom.

Critically.

Develop I truly own TRUST NO ONE tattooed on my arms? No.

I belief a range of folks. I belief my pack.

But Designate and Sheryl and Christine and Jay and Donald and Barack are no longer in my pack. And they never will seemingly be.

Trust no person? No.

I factual don’t belief THEM.

Assume lend a hand your vote.

Assume lend a hand your distance.

Assume lend a hand your recordsdata.

It’s that straightforward. And that nerve-racking.

As smart as serpents. As risk free as doves.


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